Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x514b…d2d8
sports · 139 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$152 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$211 · open −$59
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$437
Realized+$211
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses62 / 75
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage220d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 2 History 137 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$125
14 days+$411
30 days+$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 82¢ 90¢ $396 $437 +$41 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 53¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Astralis 56¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) Aurora Gaming 65¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Natus Vincere 58¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Yes 70¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Will Austria win on 2025-11-18? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Imperial (BO1) fnatic 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) G2 28¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) Natus Vincere 30¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 60¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers Celtics 53¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Hawks Hawks 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) MOUZ 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 37¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025? No 69¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Magic vs. Knicks Knicks 62¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Imperial (BO3) NRG 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3) G2 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) Vitality 57¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) Legacy 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) Team Falcons 54¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) TheMongolz 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 +$120 +118%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$31 +152%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $101 +$34 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $37 +$30 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 +$20 +79%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $55 +$53 +97%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $320 +$34 +11%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $27 −$27 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $28 +$29 +101%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $42 +$26 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $25 +$16 +62%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $50 +$21 +42%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $27 −$27 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $16 +$7 +44%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $120 +$99 +83%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 30 $202 +$115 +57%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $25 −$23 -91%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $28 −$28 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 19 $121 +$29 +24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 17 $87 +$34 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $20 +$66 +325%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) Dec 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Dec 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Dec 19 $79 +$34 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 14 $40 +$34 +85%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 13 $43 +$122 +285%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) Dec 12 $5 +$13 +253%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) Dec 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3) Dec 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 07 $37 +$14 +39%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs paiN (BO3) Dec 07 $20 +$17 +85%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX (BO3) Dec 06 $15 +$18 +117%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3) Dec 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% +$326
other 7% −$227
world 2% +$75
politics 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 82¢ $398 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 100¢ $222 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 35¢ $20 18h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $102 18h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $101 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 36¢ $20 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $20 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $59 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $11 26h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 45¢ $20 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $10 39h
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 74¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 55¢ $37 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 23¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 55¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 32¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 50¢ $55 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Spirit 100¢ $354 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Spirit 90¢ $320 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 58¢ $50 5d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 60¢ $27 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 29¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 49¢ $28 7d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 61¢ $42 8d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $25 9d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY GamerLegion 70¢ $50 9d
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $27 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic BUY Elina Svitolina 69¢ $16 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -27.6% -34.5% 40% 40% +1.4%
≤30d 35 -5.9% -14.8% 51% 51% +7.6%
≤90d 35 -5.9% -14.8% 51% 51% +7.6%
all 137 -16.2% -24.2% 45% 45% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 45% -5.4%
10% -31.5% 42% -14.5%
15% -38.1% 39% -22.7%
20% -44.2% 30% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $436.72 · official $436.72 (match) · 209 history records