Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x514b…5fa9 sports 20 markets active 5h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (245 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12,525 (-11%) realized −$12,525 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,528per market
Trades / day244.7pace
Fees−$1,815est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$11,474
other 17% −$1,566
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (245 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -35.8% -41.9% 30% 30% -18.9%
≤30d 20 -35.8% -41.9% 30% 30% -18.9%
≤90d 20 -35.8% -41.9% 30% 30% -18.9%
all 20 -35.8% -41.9% 30% 30% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover244.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.9% 30% -18.9%
10% -47.5% 30% -26.7%
15% ← realistic here -52.5% 30% -33.7%
20% -57.2% 25% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$8,419) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -47% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,258 vs −$2,756 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,525
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,815
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5,528
Trades / day244.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10,175 −$688 -7%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $13,150 −$9,956 -76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $4,389 +$2,254 +51%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5,100 −$5,058 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,900 −$241 -13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9,555 +$5,445 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5,000 +$5,000 +100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4,500 −$1,768 -39%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,221 −$2,321 -55%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,532 −$1,433 -94%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $7,279 −$7,269 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $7,617 −$3,211 -42%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $462 −$450 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4,750 +$3,000 +63%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $80 −$79 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $8,419 +$5,916 +70%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10,063 −$2,857 -28%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,613 −$2,550 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $9,053 +$3,933 +43%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $707 −$707 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over $37 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $4 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $3 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $5 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $3 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $9 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $2 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $200 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $89 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $258 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $29 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $4 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $1 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6,643 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $6 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $49 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $14 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $1 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $30 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $23 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $10 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $122 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $37 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over $1 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over $15 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over $1 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over $5 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over $1 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over $19 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 393 history records