Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5149…8952 crypto 269 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$558 (-6%) realized −$558 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%130W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$14
14 days+$60
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$699
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +23.3% +11.6% 61% 61% -5.5%
≤30d 60 +11.3% +0.7% 58% 58% +3.3%
≤90d 170 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 45% -23.3%
all 269 -4.3% -13.4% 48% 46% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 46% -16.7%
10% -21.7% 45% -24.7%
15% -29.3% 42% -31.9%
20% -36.2% 38% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$27 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$558
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses130 / 139
Open positions0
Markets (closed)269 / 269
History coverage160d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 269 Trades
no open positions (63 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$38 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $19 +$17 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $17 −$11 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$7 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $24 −$13 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$24 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $19 +$16 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$9 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$7 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$31 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$8 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$7 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$28 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$10 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $24 −$23 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$10 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $73 −$60 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $33 +$40 +120%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $18 +$16 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $30 −$12 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $17 +$14 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 726 history records