Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
51 0x5149…acd1 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$268 (+3%) realized +$263 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$1,046now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$18
30 days−$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$488
sports 28% −$207
politics 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 9 -53.0% -57.5% 22% 22% -63.8%
≤90d 14 -35.2% -41.4% 36% 29% -12.9%
all 34 -19.1% -26.8% 53% 26% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 26% -7.0%
10% -33.8% 12% -15.9%
15% -40.2% 6% -24.1%
20% -46.1% 3% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$47 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$1,046
Realized+$263
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage227d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $1,041 $1,046 +$5 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 24 $32 $0 -1%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $79 +$19 +24%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $10 −$10 -93%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $53 −$44 -84%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $179 −$167 -93%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $42 −$29 -71%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $15 +$5 +37%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $9 −$8 -97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 30 $41 −$41 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $462 +$260 +56%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 24 $183 +$5 +2%
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 17 $361 +$44 +12%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 14 $202 −$14 -7%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 01 $105 −$84 -80%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 23 $64 −$7 -12%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $35 −$33 -94%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $54 −$24 -44%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $616 +$77 +13%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 22 $161 +$27 +17%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 19 $441 +$20 +4%
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 18 $301 +$7 +2%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 11 $190 +$10 +5%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 11 $298 +$22 +8%
Khamenei seen in public by March 1? Feb 28 $280 +$20 +7%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 28 $78 −$46 -58%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 21 $860 −$50 -6%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 13 $510 +$38 +8%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $132 −$77 -58%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $638 +$61 +10%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $450 +$49 +11%
Will Zama launch a token in 2025? Dec 01 $770 +$160 +21%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $761 +$3 +0%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $584 +$193 +33%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $544 −$121 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 65¢ $32 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 5d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 7d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 8d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $1 21d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 13¢ $10 21d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner SELL JD Gaming 9¢ $9 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 53¢ $53 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL JD Gaming 4¢ $2 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL JD Gaming 4¢ $7 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL JD Gaming 4¢ $1 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL JD Gaming 4¢ $2 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 39¢ $26 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 39¢ $6 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 39¢ $7 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 60¢ $60 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 80¢ $80 24d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 25¢ $12 25d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $42 25d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $0 25d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 29¢ $9 25d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 29¢ $0 25d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 72¢ $7 25d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $41 25d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 73¢ $7 25d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 50d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 93¢ $156 50d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 95¢ $665 53d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 95¢ $190 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,045.55 · official $1,045.55 (match) · 180 history records