Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

51 0x5147…1c33 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,033 (+18%) realized +$1,444 · open −$411

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate67%10W / 5L

Drawdown48%max

Avg bet$366per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$44est.

Kalshi-fit94%portable

Net worth$750now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$594

7 days+$995

14 days+$995

30 days+$995

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-18.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+4.0%	-5.9%	77%	69%	+10.0%
≤30d	13	+4.0%	-5.9%	77%	69%	+10.0%
≤90d	13	+4.0%	-5.9%	77%	69%	+10.0%
all	15	-9.9%	-18.5%	67%	60%	+8.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.5%	60%	+8.7%
10%	-26.3%	53%	-1.7%
15%	-33.4%	20%	-11.2%
20%	-39.9%	7%	-19.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 52% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -11% → late -9% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$153 vs −$118 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage

Net worth$750

Realized+$1,444

Unrealized−$411

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses10 / 5

Est. fees paid−$44

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage130d

Avg bet$366

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown48%

Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	Over	72¢	46¢	$1,161	$750	−$411 (-35%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$896	+$275	+31%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$31	−$30	-98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$696	+$202	+29%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$499	+$197	+40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$499	+$523	+105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$458	−$455	-99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$364	+$93	+26%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$336	+$28	+8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$280	+$56	+20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$226	+$55	+24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$164	+$62	+38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$124	+$40	+32%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?	Feb 09	$28	−$28	-100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?	Feb 09	$28	−$28	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	72¢	$1,170	2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	15¢	$31	2h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	40¢	$51	5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	76¢	$896	5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	77¢	$696	29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$696	29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	71¢	$499	31h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$1,022	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$499	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	81¢	$458	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$457	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	79¢	$364	2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$364	2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	92¢	$336	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	83¢	$280	3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$280	3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	80¢	$226	3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	72¢	$164	4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$164	4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	75¢	$124	4d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?	BUY Yes	4¢	$28	130d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?	BUY Yes	2¢	$28	130d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $749.52 · official $749.52 (match) · 26 history records