Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:54:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5147…f078 weather 568 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$561 (+1%) realized +$593 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%339W / 268L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Fees−$506est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$756
other 25% −$1,861
weather 6% −$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -17.9% -25.8% 18% 17% -9.6%
≤30d 279 -0.6% -10.1% 46% 45% -12.4%
≤90d 607 -3.4% -12.6% 56% 41% -13.4%
all 607 -3.4% -12.6% 56% 41% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 41% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 39% -21.7%
15% -28.6% 33% -29.3%
20% -35.6% 24% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$40 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$593
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses339 / 268
Est. fees paid−$506
Open positions2
Markets (closed)607 / 568
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$73
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 607 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 191 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ap Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 23? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FOKUS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 76°F or higher on April 23? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting? Jun 20 $0 +$1 +283%
Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$2 -217%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 23? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 23 Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on Apr Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on April 23? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of March? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Jun 20 $22 −$23 -102%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on April 23? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ben Griffin finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta National Inv Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 20 $194 −$194 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 24 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ap Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 23? Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest G Jun 20 $0 +$45 +9527%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Jun 20 $4 −$3 -85%
Will Pure Storage (PSTG) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $0 −$1 -1581%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 20 $4 −$8 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 23? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 23? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 202 Jun 20 $1 −$11 -967%
Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 3 Jun 20 $0 −$2 -54115%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 23 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Jun 20 $1 $0 -64%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $4,082 −$66 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5,342 −$1,463 -27%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 $0 -8%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 19 $176 +$139 +79%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 19 $200 +$115 +58%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 16 $34 +$29 +86%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$2 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1,039 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1,039 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $20 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $49 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $30 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $100 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $20 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $150 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $34 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 3500 history records