Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5145…6248 world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$10
other 27% +$6
politics 24% +$1
sports 8% −$15
finance 2% +$3
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 26 -1.3% -10.7% 19% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 36 -2.3% -11.6% 22% 0% -9.8%
all 46 -5.4% -14.4% 28% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 4% -10.1%
10% -22.6% 4% -18.7%
15% -30.0% 2% -26.6%
20% -36.9% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage531d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $35 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 89¢ 85¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $47 −$1 -2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $39 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $13 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $42 −$2 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $38 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $45 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $5 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $21 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $75 +$3 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $31 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $66 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $40 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $20 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $16 −$4 -26%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $555 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $218 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $239 +$2 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $9 −$2 -18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $218 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $241 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in January? Mar 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Celtics vs. Knicks Feb 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Eagles and Commanders combine for 48 or more points? Feb 06 $7 +$7 +108%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 25 $18 $0 -2%
Will Curtis Samuel score a touchdown? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 22 $4 $0 -2%
Will the match between Tottenham and Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 09 $6 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $35 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $36 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $36 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $8 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $31 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $39 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $41 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $41 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $40 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $40 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $36 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $42 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.38 · official $36.54 (match) · 191 history records