Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x5144…37c9 world 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,969 (+9%) realized +$3,697 · open −$728
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate57%94W / 70L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$5,919now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,203
7 days+$2,272
14 days+$2,408
30 days+$2,500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$2,773
other 8% +$74
sports 3% +$46
tech 2% −$208
politics 2% +$63
finance 1% −$8
culture 0% +$42
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +5.2% -4.8% 61% 55% +8.3%
≤30d 81 -8.9% -17.6% 56% 42% +3.8%
≤90d 164 +2.6% -7.2% 57% 38% +3.2%
all 164 +2.6% -7.2% 57% 38% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 38% +3.2%
10% -16.0% 24% -6.6%
15% -24.1% 14% -15.7%
20% -31.6% 10% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$22 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.32 per $1 lost it wins $3.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$5,919
Realized+$3,697
Unrealized−$728
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses94 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions25
Markets (closed)164 / 189
History coverage78d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,200 $2,218 +$18 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 81¢ $1,400 $1,461 +$61 (+4%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 70¢ 93¢ $500 $668 +$168 (+34%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 88¢ $500 $540 +$40 (+8%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $400 $382 −$18 (-4%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 71¢ $165 $150 −$15 (-9%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $117 $76 −$41 (-35%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $200 $76 −$124 (-62%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $68 $62 −$6 (-8%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 19¢ 17¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-15%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $29 $34 +$5 (+17%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $39 $28 −$11 (-29%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 13¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 39¢ 90¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+132%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No 43¢ 14¢ $69 $22 −$46 (-67%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+11%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $50 $7 −$43 (-86%)
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? Yes 29¢ 9¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-70%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-82%)
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Yes 28¢ 9¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 72¢ 0¢ $653 $1 −$652 (-100%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B? Yes 96¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ryan Gravenberch score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $244 −$43 -18%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 18 $200 −$24 -12%
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? Jun 18 $489 +$18 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $863 +$437 +51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $3,349 +$556 +17%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $700 +$245 +35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $630 −$35 -6%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # Jun 16 $17 +$12 +72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $300 +$44 +15%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $100 +$35 +35%
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Jun 15 $86 +$28 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $150 +$172 +115%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $100 +$34 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $975 +$354 +36%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $60 −$19 -32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $520 +$397 +76%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $102 −$3 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $580 +$268 +46%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $90 +$70 +78%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $30 +$75 +250%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $60 +$37 +62%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $676 +$114 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $554 +$1 +0%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 11 $70 +$20 +28%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 10 $107 +$37 +34%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 10 $50 +$17 +33%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $100 +$54 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $11 −$6 -53%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 -2%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $50 +$34 +68%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $200 +$16 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Low Energy" this week? Jun 08 $30 +$5 +18%
Will MrBeast say "Win" or "Winner" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 06 $210 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast say "Lose" or "Loser" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $30 +$10 +32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $289 −$60 -21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $51 −$16 -32%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $324 +$36 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $230 +$73 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $50 38m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 47¢ $174 39m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 62¢ $176 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $945 10h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $200 13h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $500 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $500 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 65¢ $200 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,673 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 73¢ $55 41h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 72¢ $86 41h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 71¢ $12 41h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 76¢ $300 43h
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $489 43h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $200 47h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $55 47h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $124 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $265 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $28 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $53 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $85 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $2 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $31 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $200 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 24¢ $50 2d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $26 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 17¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $153 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $142 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,918.68 · official $5,918.86 (match) · 1020 history records