Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
51 0x513f…ac17 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,199 (+25%) realized +$2,202 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$42
14 days−$158
30 days−$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$2,700
other 9% −$496
crypto 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +30.7% +18.3% 71% 71% -7.2%
≤30d 17 +7.6% -2.6% 59% 59% -18.3%
≤90d 17 +7.6% -2.6% 59% 59% -18.3%
all 24 +18.8% +7.5% 62% 62% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.5% 62% +13.4%
10% -2.8% 58% +2.6%
15% -12.2% 42% -7.3%
20% -20.8% 33% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$105 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.31 per $1 lost it wins $3.31
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$2,202
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage248d
Avg bet$341
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 71¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 38¢ $40 $23 −$17 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $87 +$53 +61%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$35 +70%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $336 +$120 +36%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $201 +$55 +27%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $111 +$22 +20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$91 +89%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$54 +53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$70 +227%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $22 −$21 -96%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $3,200 +$1,079 +34%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $2,229 +$1,042 +47%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Oct 18 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Oct 17 $1,025 +$256 +25%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 17 $50 +$111 +222%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) Oct 16 $50 +$97 +194%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) Oct 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $140 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $86 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $41 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $67 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $125 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $256 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 72¢ $10 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 70¢ $131 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $132 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $336 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $192 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.97 · official $136.97 (match) · 66 history records