Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x513f…2531 other 7 markets active 10h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$231 (-1%) realized −$641 · open +$410
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,591per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$16,104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$410
crypto 16% −$488
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -12.3% -20.7% 0% 0% -20.7%
≤30d 1 -12.3% -20.7% 0% 0% -20.7%
≤90d 1 -12.3% -20.7% 0% 0% -20.7%
all 1 -12.3% -20.7% 0% 0% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 0% -20.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 0% -28.2%
15% -35.2% 0% -35.2%
20% -41.5% 0% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$488 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$16,104
Realized−$641
Unrealized+$410
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1 / 7
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3,591
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $6,000 $6,376 +$376 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $3,968 $3,928 −$41 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2,000 $1,993 −$7 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1,500 $1,694 +$194 (+13%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1,226 $1,117 −$108 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,000 $995 −$5 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3,966 −$488 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $373 10h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $375 10h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $278 10h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $515 28h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1,029 28h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $593 28h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $670 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $410 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,026 28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2,052 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $410 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2,051 28h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $1,763 28h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1,782 28h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $1,214 29h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $154 34h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $257 34h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $257 34h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $257 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $616 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,026 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,026 34h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,024 34h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,024 34h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $823 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $823 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,029 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,029 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,103.86 · official $16,103.86 (match) · 51 history records