Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:51:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x513e…6692 sports 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized +$24 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day51.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$38
other 30% −$28
world 13% +$8
politics 7% −$5
crypto 3% +$1
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 20% -7.0%
≤30d 55 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 20% -7.0%
≤90d 55 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 20% -7.0%
all 55 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 20% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 20% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 20% -15.9%
15% -27.1% 20% -24.0%
20% -34.3% 16% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$4 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 41
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions11
Markets (closed)55 / 66
History coverage4d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day51.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 72¢ 72¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 18¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 42¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Kaitlin Quevedo $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 59¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Marie Bouzkova 34¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Under 21¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 78¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 38¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -49%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$16 +249%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $27 +$11 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +56%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $22 −$2 -9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $136 $0 -0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$13 -63%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$10 +65%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $38 −$14 -38%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $15 −$2 -10%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 +$43 +144%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$4 -28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$6 -54%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 +$51 +334%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $8 +$4 +52%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $3 −$2 -68%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $36 −$1 -2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 +$13 +87%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$5 -16%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $0 $0 -97%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $8 +$5 +69%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $8 $0 -3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $13 −$1 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -4%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 $0 -2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -7%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $8 $0 -5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $32 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 12 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -7%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 11 $8 $0 -5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $8 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 21m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 21m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 45m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $21 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 51m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $11 51m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $22 59m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $7 3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $7 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 6h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $6 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 70¢ $19 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $2 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 26¢ $6 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 10h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $6 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.37 · official $111.37 (match) · 190 history records