Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5139…5671 politics 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%4W / 32L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$8
crypto 22% −$2
sports 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 34 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$572) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses4 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage92d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $114 $114 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $114 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $461 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $231 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $230 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $115 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $116 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $115 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $115 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $118 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $115 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $115 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 30 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $120 −$1 -1%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $120 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $120 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $121 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $121 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $121 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 05 $572 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $1,145 +$1 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $572 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 02 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $572 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $574 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $114 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $114 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $114 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $114 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $114 14d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $114 14d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $114 18d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 18d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 20d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 20d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 23d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 23d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 25d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 25d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 26d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $116 26d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $116 27d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 27d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 30d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 30d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 31d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 31d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 33d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $115 33d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $115 34d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 34d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 40d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $116 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.94 · official $113.94 (match) · 191 history records