Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5139…e8d9 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$190 (+2%) realized +$1,618 · open −$1,428
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$2,013now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$803
other 24% −$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -39.3% -45.1% 21% 21% -5.9%
≤30d 14 -39.3% -45.1% 21% 21% -5.9%
≤90d 14 -39.3% -45.1% 21% 21% -5.9%
all 14 -39.3% -45.1% 21% 21% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.1% 21% -5.9%
10% -50.4% 21% -14.9%
15% -55.2% 21% -23.1%
20% -59.5% 21% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$840 vs −$213 · ×3.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2,013
Realized+$1,618
Unrealized−$1,428
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 44¢ 40¢ $1,178 $1,081 −$97 (-8%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 32¢ 23¢ $995 $716 −$279 (-28%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 37¢ 8¢ $618 $143 −$476 (-77%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $649 $73 −$576 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $206 −$71 -34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $512 +$457 +89%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $123 −$120 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $746 −$734 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $330 −$330 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,309 +$1,791 +137%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $153 −$152 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $256 −$252 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $358 −$358 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $106 +$273 +258%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $360 35m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $390 36m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $664 37m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $254 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $553 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $480 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $358 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $7 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $54 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $26 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $3 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $969 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $35 6h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $150 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $123 6h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $56 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $191 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $321 6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $166 6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $166 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $324 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,012.93 · official $2,151.46 · 79 history records