Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5137…1556 sports 135 markets active 177d ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (166 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$138,700 (+1034%) realized +$138,706 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +133% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +80% what you keep after slip
Net edge+80%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%197W / 434L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day166.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$4,479
other 14% +$2,295
politics 4% +$282
culture 4% +$251
tech 2% +$171
weather 1% −$14
economics 1% +$4
crypto 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (166 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+111.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 490 +101.5% +82.3% 18% 18% -74.0%
≤30d 490 +101.5% +82.3% 18% 18% -74.0%
≤90d 490 +101.5% +82.3% 18% 18% -74.0%
all 627 +133.3% +111.1% 31% 29% -54.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover166.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +111.1% 29% -54.1%
10% ← realistic here +90.9% 27% -58.5%
15% +72.5% 26% -62.5%
20% +55.6% 24% -66.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +133% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +46% → late +219% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$161 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$138,706
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses197 / 434
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)631 / 135
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day166.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 631 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $52 $46 −$6 (-12%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+206%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+531%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 15 $0 +$126 +1026081%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 15 $1 −$1,074 -166864%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Jun 15 $0 +$928 +6313682%
Will Szymon Gumularz win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 27 ET? Jun 15 $91 +$18 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 20 Jun 15 $419 −$588 -140%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 15 $4,671 −$9,942 -213%
76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Parma win on 2025-11-08? Jun 15 $240 −$508 -212%
Georgia vs. Auburn Jun 15 $1,626 −$1,344 -83%
Will the Reformed Political Party win the fourth most seats in the 202 Jun 15 $6 −$17 -271%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Jun 15 $9 +$30 +327%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Jun 15 $1 +$1,448 +257520%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2025-11-25? Jun 15 $8 +$7 +80%
Will Austria win UEFA Group H for 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will between 280 and 289 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclo Jun 15 $1 −$2 -200%
Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 238.5 Jun 15 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Cagliari win on 2025-11-03? Jun 15 $233 −$262 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - September 17, 10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Drew Allar win the Heisman Trophy? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nicholls Colonels vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys: O/U 157.5 Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Genoa win on 2025-10-29? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +1700%
Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 15 $2 +$61 +2785%
Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-0.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - September 28, 2AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$47 -129%
Will Parma win on 2025-10-25? Jun 15 $126 −$152 -120%
Will another company be the largest in the world by market cap on Sept Jun 15 $94 −$16 -17%
Will Jalen Royals be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Valencia win on 2025-09-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Rockets vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 113.5 Jun 15 $96 −$97 -101%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Jun 15 $52 −$28 -54%
Oilers vs. Capitals Jun 15 $190 −$163 -86%
Tigres de la UANL vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: MIBR Female vs GIANTX GC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 9, 9AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Pacers vs. Mavericks: 1H Moneyline Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Girona win on 2025-09-26? Jun 15 $461 −$371 -80%
Will Tomio Okamura be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic af Jun 15 $50 −$44 -88%
Will Travis Hunter be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -104%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on September Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Canucks vs. Oilers Jun 15 $351 −$303 -86%
Will Bournemouth vs. Fulham end in a draw? Jun 15 $385 −$379 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Jun 15 $81 −$83 -103%
O/U 49.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35-40 million views on day 1? Jun 15 $3 +$234 +7497%
XRP Up or Down - September 14, 2PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ryan Williams win the Heisman Trophy? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA? SELL Yes 28¢ $68 176d
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 176d
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $0 178d
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $0 178d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $0 178d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $0 179d
Will Irma Rosibel Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduran presidential ele SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential ele SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential ele SELL Yes $0 181d
Will João de Deus Mendes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential elect SELL Yes $0 181d
Will José Cardoso win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Pedro Passos Coelho win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Herculano Armando Bequinsa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidentia SELL Yes $0 181d
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Orlando Cruz win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Thierno Barry be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Manuela Magno win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Vitorino Silva win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes $0 181d
Will André Pestana win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Andy Jassy be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Pedro Tinoco de Faria win the 2026 Portugal presidential election SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Gwynne Shotwell be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential ele SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $0 181d
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out in 2025? SELL Yes $1 181d
Will Trevor Lawrence win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? SELL Yes $1 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.43 · official $45.83 · 3500 history records