Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:09:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5136…0e4f other 888 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$15,677 (+9%) realized +$18,913 · open −$3,236
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%231W / 235L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day71.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$10,526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$995
other 23% −$6,354
sports 4% +$69
culture 4% −$111
tech 4% −$875
world 3% −$1,738
economics 1% −$369
crypto 0% +$33
weather 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +103.5% +84.1% 48% 28% -16.5%
≤30d 466 +40.0% +26.6% 50% 25% -14.2%
≤90d 466 +40.0% +26.6% 50% 25% -14.2%
all 466 +40.0% +26.6% 50% 25% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.6% 25% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here +14.5% 17% -22.4%
15% +3.4% 14% -29.9%
20% -6.7% 11% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +22% → late +58% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$61 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$10,526
Realized+$18,913
Unrealized−$3,236
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses231 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions400
Markets (closed)466 / 888
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$206
Trades / day71.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 400 History 466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 83¢ 97¢ $255 $300 +$44 (+17%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 81¢ 86¢ $250 $263 +$14 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 71¢ 74¢ $220 $229 +$8 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 63¢ 48¢ $195 $146 −$48 (-25%)
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 93¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 54¢ 76¢ $68 $96 +$28 (+41%)
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 88¢ 76¢ $110 $94 −$16 (-14%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 97¢ $76 $84 +$9 (+12%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 57¢ 54¢ $86 $81 −$4 (-5%)
Will Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No 97¢ 98¢ $78 $79 +$1 (+1%)
Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No 92¢ 97¢ $74 $78 +$4 (+5%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 42¢ 48¢ $63 $73 +$10 (+15%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 80¢ $62 $71 +$10 (+16%)
Will Gabriel Bortoleto get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 99¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $131 $69 −$62 (-48%)
Will Esteban Ocon get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 96¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-4%)
Will Fernando Alonso get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 96¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-4%)
Will Oliver Bearman get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 96¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-4%)
Will Alexander Albon get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 95¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $74 $67 −$7 (-10%)
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 93¢ 92¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-1%)
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 96¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-4%)
Will Franco Colapinto get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 96¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 21 $2 +$58 +2300%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 21 $15 +$13 +92%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 21 $21 +$36 +168%
Will the People Power Party win less than or equal to 1 seat in South Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will the People Power Party win 0 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 21 $17 −$4 -24%
Will the People Power Party win 5 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 21 $17 −$4 -21%
Will the People Power Party win 6 or more seats in South Korea’s June Jun 21 $17 −$4 -26%
Will the People Power Party win 3 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 21 $9 +$20 +233%
Will Zach Werenski win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 21 $0 +$64 +51825%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 21 $0 +$344 +98708%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 53-55 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region Jun 21 $1 +$13 +1964%
Will Anthony Cirelli win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +78%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on Jun 21 $48 +$2 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 21 $156 −$110 -71%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $459 −$452 -98%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $86 +$1 +2%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 21 $19 +$11 +58%
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Jun 20 $21 −$4 -17%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 20 $892 −$84 -10%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor Jun 20 $336 +$63 +19%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $890 −$54 -6%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 20 $80 +$286 +356%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 20 $187 +$23 +12%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 20 $60 $0 +1%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 20 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 20 $58 +$2 +4%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Jun 20 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $59 +$1 +1%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $134 −$134 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $313 −$163 -52%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $180 −$30 -16%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $265 −$115 -43%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $197 −$47 -24%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 19 $143 +$43 +30%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 19 $83 +$36 +44%
Will Angus King III win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $105 +$2 +2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $43,529 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026 Jun 18 $106 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $2 +$23 +1086%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $31 +$8 +26%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $3 +$24 +867%
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $38 −$23 -59%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $16 +$4 +21%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +25%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? Jun 15 $22 +$3 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day BUY No 98¢ $25 4m
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on BUY No 89¢ $22 4m
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I BUY No 94¢ $24 4m
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on BUY No 97¢ $24 4m
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o BUY No 78¢ $20 4m
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY No 88¢ $22 4m
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $13 4m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 80¢ $58 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 80¢ $7 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 22¢ $18 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 95¢ $76 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 92¢ $74 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 94¢ $75 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 47¢ $39 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 63¢ $51 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 95¢ $76 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 22¢ $18 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 80¢ $65 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 43¢ $9 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 56¢ $31 2h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY No 43¢ $9 2h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $61 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $162 4h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $38 4h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $200 4h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $82 4h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $15 4h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $9 4h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $23 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $110 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,526.41 · official $10,604.00 (match) · 3500 history records