Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

51 0x5132…f025 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$3,312 (+114%) realized +$3,312 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%2W / 5L

Drawdown1%max

Avg bet$323per market

Trades / day3.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-17.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-9.1%	-17.7%	29%	29%	+99.6%
≤30d	7	-9.1%	-17.7%	29%	29%	+99.6%
≤90d	7	-9.1%	-17.7%	29%	29%	+99.6%
all	7	-9.1%	-17.7%	29%	29%	+99.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.7%	29%	+99.6%
10%	-25.6%	29%	+80.5%
15%	-32.8%	29%	+63.1%
20%	-39.4%	29%	+47.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +121% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +121% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,655 vs −$9 · ×178.98 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×71.59 per $1 lost it wins $71.59

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$3,312

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses2 / 5

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)7 / 9

History coverage4d

Avg bet$323

Trades / day3.2

Drawdown1%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 7 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Jun 26	$50	−$12	-24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$47	+$66	+139%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 23	$51	−$4	-7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$2,526	+$3,244	+128%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Jun 22	$19	−$19	-97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	Jun 22	$9	−$9	-98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Jun 22	$3	−$3	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	BUY	24¢	$151	1h
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL Yes	12¢	$38	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$113	42h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	41¢	$47	3d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	30¢	$47	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5,771	3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$19	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$2,526	3d
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY Yes	15¢	$50	4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	25¢	$9	4d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	31¢	$51	4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	BUY No	10¢	$3	4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will France win on 2026-06-	BUY	8¢	$51	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $147.65 · 13 history records