Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x5131…e9ef sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$16 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$16
tech 40% +$13
sports 9% +$6
other 7% −$15
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$3
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +14.8% +3.8% 100% 33% -2.9%
≤30d 3 +14.8% +3.8% 100% 33% -2.9%
≤90d 6 +7.1% -3.1% 67% 17% -9.4%
all 42 -7.9% -16.6% 45% 19% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 19% -9.7%
10% -24.6% 12% -18.3%
15% -31.9% 10% -26.2%
20% -38.6% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage217d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 82¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $98 +$6 +6%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +30%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $2,205 −$16 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $239 −$4 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $1,952 +$13 +1%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Mar 11 $13 +$1 +8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Jan 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jan 19 $10 −$1 -9%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 18 $5 −$1 -13%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $42 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 08 $2 $0 -2%
XRP Up or Down - December 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 08 $3 −$2 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 2AM ET Dec 08 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 08 $2 +$2 +96%
XRP Up or Down - December 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Dec 08 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 04 $2 $0 -25%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m Dec 04 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 03 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 02 $6 $0 -3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Dec 01 $51 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 01 $7 $0 -3%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? Dec 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 01 $13 $0 +4%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $10 +$7 +69%
Will West Ham vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Nov 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 28 $3 $0 -2%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 28 $9 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 28 $3 $0 -2%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Nov 27 $1 $0 -8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 25 $10 $0 +3%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21? Nov 21 $1 $0 +15%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novembe Nov 17 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 15? Nov 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Nov 15 $1 $0 +19%
Will Infinex launch a token in 2025? Nov 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $101 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL No 87¢ $105 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $100 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 85¢ $109 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $98 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $101 4h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2,189 65d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2,205 66d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $235 66d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 98¢ $1,965 66d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $61 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $4 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $2 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $16 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $159 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $23 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $163 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $3 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $20 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $163 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $146 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $393 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $98 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $244 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $302 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $156 68d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $228 68d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 68d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.55 · official $197.55 (match) · 162 history records