Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:03:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x5130…5a76
sports · 10 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$27 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$29 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$89
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 6 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Qatar 40¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Morocco 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Australia 70¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 +$37 +121%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 89% +$37
other 11% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $10 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 40¢ $31 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $29 8h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 17h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $5 17h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -11.3% -19.7% 50% 50% +47.3%
≤30d 4 -11.3% -19.7% 50% 50% +47.3%
≤90d 4 -11.3% -19.7% 50% 50% +47.3%
all 4 -11.3% -19.7% 50% 50% +47.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 50% +47.3%
10% -27.4% 50% +33.2%
15% -34.4% 25% +20.4%
20% -40.8% 25% +8.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.59 · official $88.59 (match) · 15 history records