Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5130…bc2e crypto 1539 markets active 2d ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate91%1437W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$463
7 days−$570
14 days−$631
30 days−$643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$7
other 15% −$113
sports 2% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -56.2% -60.4% 39% 8% -56.2%
≤30d 276 -16.0% -24.0% 77% 8% -22.5%
≤90d 1577 -4.6% -13.7% 91% 6% -11.1%
all 1577 -4.6% -13.7% 91% 6% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 6% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 3% -19.6%
15% -29.5% 1% -27.4%
20% -36.4% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1437 / 140
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1577 / 1539
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1577 Trades
no open positions (114 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $39 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $34 +$4 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 −$10 -25%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $39 +$2 +4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $5 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $13 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 87¢ $44 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $44 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $39 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $39 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 88¢ $34 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $34 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 87¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 46¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 38¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $40 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 96¢ $39 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa SELL Tessa Brockmann 75¢ $5 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Tessa Brockmann 82¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 39¢ $1 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 88¢ $8 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $1 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 90¢ $7 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 79¢ $1 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 78¢ $5 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 93¢ $28 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 62¢ $3 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 59¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records