Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x512d…035d crypto 802 markets active 3d ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (253 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$207 (-3%) realized −$207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%332W / 491L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day253.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$223
7 days−$391
14 days−$462
30 days−$447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (253 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 203 -33.7% -40.0% 19% 19% -27.3%
≤30d 823 -6.6% -15.5% 40% 39% -14.9%
≤90d 823 -6.6% -15.5% 40% 39% -14.9%
all 823 -6.6% -15.5% 40% 39% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover253.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 39% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 36% -23.1%
15% -31.0% 30% -30.5%
20% -37.7% 22% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses332 / 491
Open positions0
Markets (closed)823 / 802
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day253.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 823 Trades
no open positions (419 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$20 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$36 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records