Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:17:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5125…b303 other 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%20W / 127L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$13
sports 26% −$22
politics 25% −$7
crypto 8% −$4
culture 4% −$2
economics 4% −$3
world 3% $0
tech 2% −$1
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 147 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses20 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage169d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 97¢ 97¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $45 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $233 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $823 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 29 $136 +$1 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $287 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 28 $580 −$5 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 27 $305 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $143 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 27 $148 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 26 $486 −$2 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 26 $150 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 26 $148 +$3 +2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $976 −$2 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 25 $147 $0 +0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $139 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $146 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Mar 24 $151 $0 +0%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $140 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 23 $181 +$1 +1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 23 $315 −$2 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $199 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 22 $305 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $150 −$2 -1%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $151 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $475 −$2 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $159 −$6 -4%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 20 $233 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $339 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 19 $341 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 18 $161 −$6 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 18 $155 −$1 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $160 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 15 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $332 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 14 $160 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $290 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $343 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 12 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 11 $167 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 09 $161 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 97¢ $35 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $45 26d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $45 26d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $48 35d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $48 35d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $45 42d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $45 43d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $141 90d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $92 90d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $26 90d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $23 90d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $137 90d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $136 90d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $136 90d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $136 90d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $143 90d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $143 91d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 93¢ $140 91d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $144 91d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $147 91d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $147 91d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $149 91d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $149 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $143 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $143 92d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $147 92d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $148 92d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $151 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.31 · official $35.31 (match) · 649 history records