Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:05:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x5124…f78e
crypto · 33 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$22 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses21 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day42.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$20 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -59%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $65 −$46 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $46 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $5 +$11 +216%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $8 +$13 +158%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% −$57
sports 9% +$31
other 1% +$6
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 58m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 19¢ $0 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 66¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +11.2% +0.6% 66% 53% -14.6%
≤30d 32 +11.2% +0.6% 66% 53% -14.6%
≤90d 32 +11.2% +0.6% 66% 53% -14.6%
all 32 +11.2% +0.6% 66% 53% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.6% 53% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -9.0% 50% -22.8%
15% -17.8% 41% -30.2%
20% -25.9% 28% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records