Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x511f…cbe1
other · 317 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$98,135 -48%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$86,327 · open −$48,695
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$4,305
Realized−$86,327
Unrealized−$48,695
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$359
Open positions488
Markets (closed)100 / 317
Avg bet$643
Trades / day1605.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 488 History 100 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86,327
7 days−$86,327
14 days−$86,327
30 days−$86,327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 98¢ $817 $815 −$1 (-0%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 77¢ 80¢ $641 $667 +$27 (+4%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 34¢ $19 $207 +$188 (+1006%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 23¢ 20¢ $195 $162 −$33 (-17%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $153 $153 −$1 (-1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 67¢ 66¢ $111 $110 −$1 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 44¢ $7 $106 +$99 (+1369%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 55¢ 56¢ $91 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 4¢ 81¢ $4 $89 +$85 (+2006%)
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $154 $71 −$83 (-54%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 65¢ $4 $70 +$66 (+1785%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $33 $68 +$34 (+103%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $32 $60 +$28 (+88%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $19 $46 +$28 (+147%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $5 $41 +$36 (+657%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 1¢ 26¢ $2 $33 +$31 (+1609%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+21%)
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 77¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-6%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Yes 3¢ 64¢ $1 $27 +$26 (+1868%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? No 98¢ 98¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $1,605 −$1,600 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $387 +$282 +73%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $790 −$713 -90%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,581 −$1,353 -86%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,063 −$569 -54%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $2,060 −$2,049 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $663 −$430 -65%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1,167 −$1,122 -96%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $4,799 −$4,773 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $4,413 −$4,371 -99%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $4,549 −$4,499 -99%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $4,518 −$4,456 -99%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $3,958 −$3,949 -100%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $2,469 −$2,438 -99%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 12 $14 +$4 +29%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 12 $17 −$15 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$90 +914%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $130 −$119 -92%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $62 −$31 -50%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Jun 12 $145 −$144 -99%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Jun 12 $145 −$144 -99%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $186 −$128 -69%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 12 $145 −$145 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 12 $145 −$144 -99%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $156 −$155 -99%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 12 $142 −$138 -97%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 Jun 12 $36 +$4 +11%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $649 −$612 -94%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $586 −$495 -84%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $11,372 −$11,028 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $10,751 −$10,739 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $147 −$145 -99%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 12 $463 −$417 -90%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $932 −$908 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $162 −$162 -100%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $822 −$575 -70%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $275 −$263 -96%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 12 $527 −$393 -74%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $995 −$988 -99%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 12 $357 −$36 -10%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $383 −$109 -29%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 12 $901 −$791 -88%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 Jun 12 $33 −$31 -94%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 12 $35 −$29 -83%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 12 $70 −$38 -54%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $826 −$820 -99%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $1,337 −$1,264 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% −$82,733
politics 17% −$17,578
sports 13% −$25,530
world 11% −$1,186
tech 9% −$4,308
culture 5% −$3,480
finance 2% −$186
crypto 1% +$74
economics 0% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $6 1m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 76¢ $630 2m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 24¢ $205 2m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $818 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 74¢ $11 2m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 72¢ $8 2m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 71¢ $6 2m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 77¢ $1,540 4m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 98¢ $1,971 4m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 24¢ $495 4m
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 4m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $25 5m
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 5m
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 5m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $7 6m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 6m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $10 6m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $9 6m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 6m
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $14 6m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 98¢ $926 6m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 22¢ $212 6m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 79¢ $743 6m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 10¢ $5 6m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $50 7m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 7m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $12 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -32.7% -39.1% 9% 6% -92.7%
≤30d 100 -32.7% -39.1% 9% 6% -92.7%
≤90d 100 -32.7% -39.1% 9% 6% -92.7%
all 100 -32.7% -39.1% 9% 6% -92.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1605.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.1% 6% -92.7%
10% -44.9% 5% -93.4%
15% ← realistic here -50.2% 4% -94.1%
20% -55.1% 4% -94.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,305.12 · official $4,297.87 (match) · 3500 history records