trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sean Payton win NFL Coach of the Year? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sean Payton win NFL Coach of the Year? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin | Feb 10 | $1 | $0 | -12% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? | Feb 08 | $1 | −$1 | -92% |
| Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Feb 06 | $1 | $0 | -20% |
| Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? | Feb 04 | $22,099 | −$2 | -0% |
| Human moon landing in 2026? | Feb 01 | $44,728 | −$6 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 6 | -37.4% | -43.3% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -43.3% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -48.8% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -53.7% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -58.2% | 0% | -33.3% |