Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x511d…3633 sports 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$669 (+5%) realized +$692 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%108W / 67L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$182
14 days+$284
30 days+$684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$682
other 9% −$39
tech 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +4.8% -5.2% 54% 54% +4.7%
≤30d 134 +2.3% -7.4% 63% 56% -2.9%
≤90d 175 -1.6% -11.0% 62% 53% -4.6%
all 175 -1.6% -11.0% 62% 53% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 53% -4.6%
10% -19.5% 43% -13.7%
15% -27.3% 29% -22.1%
20% -34.4% 22% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$36 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized+$692
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses108 / 67
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions3
Markets (closed)175 / 181
History coverage40d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $137 $142 +$5 (+4%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 61¢ 60¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $96 $68 −$28 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $65 +$60 +91%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $53 +$17 +32%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $58 −$48 -83%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $138 −$36 -26%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $299 +$151 +51%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $194 +$56 +29%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $36 +$64 +180%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $91 −$90 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $51 +$51 +101%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$12 -57%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $45 −$29 -65%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $85 +$65 +76%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $16 +$15 +100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $120 +$30 +25%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Jun 08 $61 +$33 +55%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $41 +$19 +45%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $87 +$63 +72%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $153 +$97 +63%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $178 +$2 +1%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $32 −$31 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $163 +$37 +23%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $13 −$13 -99%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 07 $29 +$21 +73%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $26 −$26 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $57 −$56 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $22 +$23 +108%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $77 +$23 +30%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $30 +$30 +100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $61 −$61 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $34 +$11 +31%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $51 +$17 +34%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $111 +$39 +35%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $221 −$1 -0%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 06 $30 +$5 +16%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $63 −$63 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $31 −$14 -47%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $93 −$38 -41%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $19 +$6 +29%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $76 +$24 +32%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 06 $28 +$22 +79%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $25 +$12 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $66 +$34 +52%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $24 −$18 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 61¢ $93 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 51¢ $13 4h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 52¢ $53 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 70¢ $69 13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $53 13h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 10¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 69¢ $103 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $58 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $138 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 75¢ $7 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 75¢ $68 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 75¢ $75 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 58¢ $88 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 60¢ $61 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $79 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 12¢ $12 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 35¢ $36 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $42 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $49 4d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY Gen.G 49¢ $51 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 47¢ $15 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 90¢ $90 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 74¢ $30 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 94¢ $15 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 69¢ $50 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06- BUY 22¢ $8 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $49 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $137 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.88 · official $301.02 (match) · 445 history records