Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
51 0x511d…1285 other 58 markets active 1d ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$13
politics 12% −$1
other 4% −$5
economics 1% $0
sports 1% −$28
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -7.3% -16.1% 0% 0% -13.2%
≤90d 42 -10.9% -19.4% 14% 10% -11.9%
all 56 -8.1% -16.8% 20% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 9% -9.8%
10% -24.8% 7% -18.4%
15% -32.0% 5% -26.3%
20% -38.7% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage591d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $45 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $9 +$7 +72%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 +$3 +24%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $6 +$7 +105%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $14 +$6 +42%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 03 $41 $0 +1%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $21 $0 +0%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February? Mar 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $13,553 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $2 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 13 $17 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 24h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 25h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 45h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.05 · official $37.05 (match) · 234 history records