Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x5116…5901
crypto · 136 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$69 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$69 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses57 / 78
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage43d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 135 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$130
14 days−$69
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 68¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$6 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +51%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$6 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% −$65
sports 11% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $3 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $7 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $5 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -51.4% -56.0% 33% 27% -51.1%
≤30d 134 -15.7% -23.7% 43% 37% -23.9%
≤90d 135 -15.6% -23.7% 42% 37% -23.9%
all 135 -15.6% -23.7% 42% 37% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 37% -23.9%
10% -31.0% 30% -31.2%
15% -37.6% 25% -37.9%
20% -43.7% 21% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.98 · official $3.11 (match) · 339 history records