Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:29:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
51 0x5115…f1d2 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$83 (+8%) realized +$75 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate69%20W / 9L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$26
14 days+$35
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% +$68
sports 7% +$9
other 2% +$3
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +32.2% +19.6% 50% 50% +19.6%
≤30d 7 +24.9% +13.0% 71% 57% +10.3%
≤90d 29 +4.7% -5.2% 69% 31% -2.1%
all 29 +4.7% -5.2% 69% 31% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 31% -2.1%
10% -14.3% 24% -11.5%
15% -22.6% 14% -20.1%
20% -30.2% 10% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses20 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)29 / 36
History coverage84d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $73 $71 −$1 (-2%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 79¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 43¢ 44¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 67¢ 84¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 91¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $20 +$23 +114%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$8 -41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 07 $40 +$9 +23%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 24 $20 +$4 +22%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 14 $20 $0 -2%
Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026? May 04 $20 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 02 $20 +$2 +11%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by April 30, May 02 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $40 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $40 +$13 +32%
Military action against Iran ends by April 25, 2026? Apr 13 $20 $0 +1%
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $20 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $109 −$50 -46%
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? Apr 12 $20 $0 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $60 +$84 +140%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Apr 07 $20 −$1 -6%
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? Apr 07 $40 +$14 +35%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 04 $40 −$28 -71%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 04 $60 +$6 +10%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Avalanche vs. Jets Mar 27 $20 $0 +0%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Mar 27 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Mar 27 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $25 1h
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $25 1h
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $25 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $25 5h
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $20 2d
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $3 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $4 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $0 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 100¢ $20 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $6 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 7d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $20 18d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $20 19d
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 23d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $20 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $2 33d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $0 33d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $0 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.96 · official $213.96 (match) · 164 history records