Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5113…dec2 crypto 881 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$187 (+1%) realized +$187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate77%681W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$58
14 days−$276
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$335
sports 2% +$252
other 0% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -7.2% -16.0% 40% 23% -6.3%
≤30d 477 -1.8% -11.2% 74% 48% -9.2%
≤90d 881 -0.9% -10.3% 77% 56% -9.9%
all 881 -0.9% -10.3% 77% 56% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 56% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 21% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 6% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$26 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses681 / 200
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)881 / 881
History coverage50d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 881 Trades
no open positions (101 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $235 +$190 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $464 +$62 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$76 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $300 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $235 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 9h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $73 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $26 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $6 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $19 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $183 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $288 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $187 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $0 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $16 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $36 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $48 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $72 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $35 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2244 history records