Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x5112…bab9
other · 68 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$28 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$28 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$128
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses28 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage459d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $129 $128 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $149 −$19 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $108 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $162 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $208 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $33 +$8 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $11 −$4 -36%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $201 −$31 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $231 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $69 +$2 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $184 +$50 +27%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $27 +$23 +85%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 12 $1,089 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,089 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $990 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $990 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $2,077 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $190 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 22 $1 $0 +8%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $1 $0 -14%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 24 $5 −$3 -67%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 20 $5 $0 +6%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 19 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 17 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 17 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Gujarat Titans win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 10 $5 $0 -4%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 07 $11 $0 +3%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 26 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? Apr 25 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 24 $11 $0 -1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 25? Apr 21 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 28% −$35
sports 27% +$1
world 23% +$2
other 20% +$10
finance 2% +$50
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $129 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $23 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $106 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $149 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $108 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 99¢ $108 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 99¢ $163 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 99¢ $162 4d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 89¢ $99 46d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 89¢ $108 46d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 46d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 89¢ $26 46d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 89¢ $150 46d
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 48d
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 48d
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 48d
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 48d
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $33 48d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 48d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 49d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W SELL No 42¢ $125 49d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W SELL No 42¢ $45 49d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY No 50¢ $201 49d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? SELL No 90¢ $44 50d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? SELL No 90¢ $189 50d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY No 89¢ $36 50d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY No 89¢ $194 50d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 50d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $59 50d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $69 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.2% -13.3% 67% 0% -13.5%
≤30d 3 -4.2% -13.3% 67% 0% -13.5%
≤90d 18 +4.2% -5.8% 44% 17% -9.2%
all 67 -5.2% -14.3% 42% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 6% -9.2%
10% -22.5% 6% -17.9%
15% -30.0% 3% -25.8%
20% -36.8% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.45 · official $128.45 (match) · 216 history records