Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x510f…a43c
other · 343 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$1,481 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,586 · open −$1,037
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10,422
Realized+$1,586
Unrealized−$1,037
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses150 / 59
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions461
Markets (closed)209 / 343
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3497.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 461 History 209 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,586
7 days+$1,586
14 days+$1,586
30 days+$1,586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 95¢ 77¢ $73 $60 −$14 (-19%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? No 82¢ 67¢ $71 $57 −$13 (-19%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 97¢ 95¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? No 95¢ 92¢ $57 $55 −$2 (-3%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $54 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B? Yes 95¢ 90¢ $57 $54 −$3 (-5%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 91¢ 86¢ $57 $54 −$3 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $56 $53 −$3 (-5%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 87¢ $56 $53 −$3 (-6%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 96¢ 95¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-1%)
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? No 86¢ 84¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 82¢ 84¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? No 89¢ 82¢ $53 $49 −$4 (-8%)
Will Nikolas Ferreira win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? No 94¢ 94¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 79¢ 77¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-3%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 75¢ 72¢ $48 $45 −$2 (-5%)
Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chirayu Rana fired? Jun 12 $32 +$14 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 12 $2 +$22 +1330%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 −$6 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$10 +723%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 12 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 12 $49 +$10 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 −$4 -10%
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $14 +$5 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $35 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $32 +$19 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $71 +$11 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $65 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +67%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $24 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 12 $1 +$5 +387%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 −$1 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$3 -32%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -28%
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary e Jun 12 $4 +$2 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will Paraguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $11 −$7 -63%
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $56 +$35 +62%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +690%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $355? Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $11 +$20 +190%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$8 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $43 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $31 +$6 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -80%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$23 +65%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 12 $4 +$27 +752%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 +$27 +922%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 Jun 12 $1 +$23 +1978%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $1 +$19 +2093%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% −$547
weather 15% +$318
world 10% +$277
tech 4% +$210
finance 3% +$74
politics 3% +$146
sports 2% +$52
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $29 1m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 59¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? SELL No 95¢ $9 2m
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2m
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 3m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? SELL No 75¢ $21 3m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? SELL No 76¢ $2 3m
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 3m
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 3m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? SELL No 80¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 59¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 94¢ $6 5m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? SELL No 76¢ $3 6m
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $14 6m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? BUY No 45¢ $14 6m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 30¢ $3 6m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $54 7m
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? SELL No 17¢ $11 7m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 58¢ $6 7m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 85¢ $10 7m
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by August 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $13 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+127.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 +151.4% +127.5% 72% 48% +16.0%
≤30d 209 +151.4% +127.5% 72% 48% +16.0%
≤90d 209 +151.4% +127.5% 72% 48% +16.0%
all 209 +151.4% +127.5% 72% 48% +16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3497.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +127.5% 48% +16.0%
10% ← realistic here +105.7% 40% +4.9%
15% +85.8% 36% -5.2%
20% +67.6% 32% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,422.10 · official $12,413.32 · 3500 history records