Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x510f…b850 crypto 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (200 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$326 (-32%) realized −$328 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%28W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day200.5pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$351
other 6% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (200 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -8.1% -16.9% 43% 42% -41.6%
≤30d 65 -8.1% -16.9% 43% 42% -41.6%
≤90d 65 -8.1% -16.9% 43% 42% -41.6%
all 65 -8.1% -16.9% 43% 42% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover200.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 42% -41.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 40% -47.2%
15% -32.1% 40% -52.3%
20% -38.8% 29% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$18 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$328
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses28 / 37
Open positions5
Markets (closed)65 / 70
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day200.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+200%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $84 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $48 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$53 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $32 +$36 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$23 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$26 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 24 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$32 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$12 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$13 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $18 +$22 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$8 -60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$11 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$10 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.19 · official $17.19 (match) · 244 history records