Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x510c…1b08 other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$432 (-22%) realized −$426 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%32W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$13
14 days−$193
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$374
sports 25% −$64
crypto 2% −$9
politics 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +13.5% +2.7% 58% 50% -2.7%
≤30d 35 -18.0% -25.8% 49% 43% -28.0%
≤90d 63 -19.1% -26.8% 51% 48% -31.5%
all 63 -19.1% -26.8% 51% 48% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 48% -31.5%
10% -33.8% 37% -38.1%
15% -40.2% 29% -44.1%
20% -46.1% 19% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$28 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$426
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses32 / 31
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage72d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 80¢ 73¢ $61 $56 −$6 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7 +$4 +53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9 +$3 +32%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 +$42 +394%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $38 −$38 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 +$7 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$58 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$101 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $12 −$11 -89%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 +$19 +61%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $32 −$30 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $53 +$28 +53%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $35 −$33 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $4 $0 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $105 +$23 +22%
Will CD La Serena win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $40 +$15 +38%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $40 +$31 +78%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $96 +$44 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $69 −$66 -95%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $27 −$26 -95%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $9 +$1 +8%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $30 −$29 -98%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-28? May 20 $83 −$80 -96%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $13 −$12 -94%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $9 −$1 -6%
Will CA Huracán win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $25 +$5 +18%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw? May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $26 +$4 +16%
Will CA Huracán win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $20 +$12 +60%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $50 +$21 +42%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $20 +$10 +48%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $7 +$9 +128%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $24 +$16 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 06 $5 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 80¢ $62 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 21h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $9 22h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 41h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 45h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $38 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $32 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $61 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $31 11d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $102 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $1 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 27¢ $7 11d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $32 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $32 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 12d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $12 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 25¢ $15 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 26¢ $4 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 19¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.61 · official $55.23 (match) · 114 history records