Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:36:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
51 0x510b…2fea other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$22 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$97
other 44% +$57
world 7% −$17
crypto 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +20.1% +8.6% 50% 50% +28.7%
≤30d 20 +20.1% +8.6% 50% 50% +28.7%
≤90d 20 +20.1% +8.6% 50% 50% +28.7%
all 20 +20.1% +8.6% 50% 50% +28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 50% +28.7%
10% -1.7% 45% +16.4%
15% -11.2% 45% +5.1%
20% -19.9% 35% -5.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$12 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Yes 27¢ 24¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ $29 $12 −$17 (-59%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$2 +22%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win o Jun 20 $51 +$90 +176%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 19 $25 +$26 +102%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $12 +$12 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $39 +$17 +42%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$19 +93%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $18 +$8 +46%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $25 +$39 +154%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 +$44 +474%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 51¢ $12 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win o BUY 35¢ $51 32h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- SELL 76¢ $51 47h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 2d
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $25 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $56 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $39 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $12 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $12 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 22¢ $4 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 70¢ $1 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 70¢ $4 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 70¢ $22 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $18 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $9 5d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 5d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.19 · official $49.19 (match) · 43 history records