Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5109…7525 crypto 1024 markets active 1d ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (188 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$253 (+2%) realized +$253 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%424W / 559L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day188.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$425
14 days+$495
30 days+$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$485
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (188 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 553 -3.0% -12.2% 39% 39% -5.0%
≤30d 983 -2.6% -11.9% 43% 42% -5.6%
≤90d 983 -2.6% -11.9% 43% 42% -5.6%
all 983 -2.6% -11.9% 43% 42% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover188.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 42% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 41% -14.6%
15% -28.0% 40% -22.9%
20% -35.1% 38% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$253
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses424 / 559
Open positions0
Markets (closed)983 / 1024
History coverage14d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day188.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 983 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$14 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$31 +94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$35 +164%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$39 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$27 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$17 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$43 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$77 +223%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$32 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$40 +134%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$34 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $54 +$49 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$45 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$39 +339%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$23 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$21 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$75 +304%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$38 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$34 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$41 +159%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $38 +$34 +88%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$32 +88%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$31 +77%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$35 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $46 +$34 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$70 +223%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$31 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $43 +$12 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $14 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $40 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $16 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $14 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $27 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $13 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $8 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3213 history records