Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:39:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x5109…5e9c
world · 117 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$131,984 +30%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$70,983 · open +$17,394
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$135,643
Realized+$70,983
Unrealized+$17,394
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses30 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions154
Markets (closed)57 / 117
Avg bet$3,797
Trades / day113.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 154 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,702
7 days+$15,798
14 days+$46,506
30 days+$70,983
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 38¢ $15,008 $21,168 +$6,161 (+41%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $16,006 $19,032 +$3,026 (+19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $12,616 $15,928 +$3,313 (+26%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 93¢ 99¢ $8,339 $8,827 +$488 (+6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 30¢ $9,372 $7,271 −$2,102 (-22%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $6,632 $6,405 −$227 (-3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $4,715 $4,932 +$217 (+5%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 30¢ 26¢ $5,722 $4,863 −$859 (-15%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4,015 $3,776 −$238 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 22¢ 32¢ $2,551 $3,707 +$1,157 (+45%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 47¢ 75¢ $2,008 $3,211 +$1,204 (+60%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 58¢ 64¢ $2,682 $2,995 +$313 (+12%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 56¢ 100¢ $1,312 $2,356 +$1,043 (+80%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 45¢ 89¢ $1,044 $2,077 +$1,033 (+99%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $1,786 $1,997 +$212 (+12%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No 71¢ 81¢ $1,482 $1,704 +$222 (+15%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 21¢ 77¢ $390 $1,414 +$1,023 (+262%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $1,367 $1,255 −$112 (-8%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 40¢ 54¢ $799 $1,069 +$271 (+34%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $850 $991 +$141 (+17%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 85¢ 98¢ $850 $984 +$134 (+16%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 62¢ 97¢ $544 $851 +$307 (+56%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 47¢ 76¢ $494 $802 +$308 (+62%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 30¢ 40¢ $600 $790 +$190 (+32%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $789 $786 −$3 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $123 +$7 +5%
Will Trump announce John Ratcliffe as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Trump announce Richard Grenell as the next Director of National I Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $439 +$13 +3%
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $29 +$1 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $136 +$124 +91%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,113 +$117 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 10 $229 −$229 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $4,546 −$3,646 -80%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 10 $412 −$88 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 05 $153 −$153 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 05 $747 −$669 -90%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 05 $1,334 −$1,334 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $137,867 +$22,466 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $800 −$800 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,801 −$3,511 -92%
Will "Kawhi" or "Leonard" be said on ICEMAN? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 31 $3,603 +$13,546 +376%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 31 $64 +$11 +18%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 31 $863 −$863 -100%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 31 $147 −$147 -100%
Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200? May 31 $43 −$33 -78%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? May 31 $83 −$83 -100%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 31 $1,110 −$110 -10%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 31 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 31 $31,228 +$23,415 +75%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the nex May 31 $853 −$853 -100%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? May 31 $837 −$837 -100%
Will 'ICEMAN' be less than 30 minutes long? May 31 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 31 $7,302 −$6,082 -83%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 31 $13,620 −$9,603 -70%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 31 $1,936 +$15,997 +826%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 31 $54 +$88 +164%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $7 −$6 -92%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $1,916 +$90 +5%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $1,778 +$711 +40%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 19 $5,396 +$87 +2%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $488 +$4,098 +839%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $8,011 +$941 +12%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,690 +$134 +8%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $752 −$16 -2%
Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet? May 15 $1 +$2 +212%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $19 +$6 +30%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $916 +$455 +50%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,766 +$1,204 +68%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $2,473 +$2,656 +107%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $8,319 +$10,039 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% +$54,854
crypto 33% +$26,969
other 13% −$4,724
politics 12% +$9,501
tech 3% +$1,829
economics 1% +$34
sports 0% $0
finance 0% −$43
culture 0% −$33
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $99 5m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $690 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $177 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $368 5m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $55 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 8m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $197 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $53 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $162 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $175 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $71 12m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $41 13m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 14m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $56 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 15m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $940 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $362 18m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $760 42m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $840 50m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $152 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $240 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 29¢ $141 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $178 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -38.7% -44.6% 47% 12% +0.1%
≤30d 57 +20.8% +9.3% 53% 37% +14.8%
≤90d 57 +20.8% +9.3% 53% 37% +14.8%
all 57 +20.8% +9.3% 53% 37% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover113.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.3% 37% +14.8%
10% -1.1% 32% +3.9%
15% ← realistic here -10.7% 28% -6.2%
20% -19.4% 23% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135,642.86 · official $135,853.86 (match) · 3500 history records