Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5108…4b84 crypto 350 markets active 3h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (303 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+1%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%191W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day303.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$136
14 days−$65
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$87
weather 1% +$19
world 0% +$3
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (303 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 47% -15.7%
≤30d 350 +4.6% -5.3% 55% 42% -10.4%
≤90d 350 +4.6% -5.3% 55% 42% -10.4%
all 350 +4.6% -5.3% 55% 42% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover303.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 42% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 31% -18.9%
15% -22.7% 29% -26.8%
20% -30.2% 28% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses191 / 159
Open positions1
Markets (closed)350 / 350
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day303.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$11 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$2 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$11 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$5 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$5 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $13 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $9 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.40 · official $15.41 (match) · 3500 history records