Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5108…29cb sports 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,682 (-13%) realized −$25,645 · open +$963
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%91W / 81L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,045per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1,466est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$7,063now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23,729
7 days−$17,137
14 days−$21,014
30 days−$16,284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$5,779
world 14% −$7,773
other 14% −$6,268
crypto 2% −$2,357
finance 1% −$973
tech 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 60% 58% -27.5%
≤30d 137 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 54% -19.4%
≤90d 172 +19.3% +7.9% 53% 51% -23.1%
all 172 +19.3% +7.9% 53% 51% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 51% -23.1%
10% -2.4% 51% -30.4%
15% -11.8% 44% -37.2%
20% -20.5% 32% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$1,107) neutral
Persistence
early +46% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$596 vs −$969 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$7,063
Realized−$25,645
Unrealized+$963
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses91 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$1,466
Open positions7
Markets (closed)172 / 179
History coverage74d
Avg bet$1,045
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 57¢ $1,900 $2,080 +$180 (+9%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $1,500 $1,806 +$306 (+20%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ 76¢ $700 $850 +$150 (+21%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 71¢ 100¢ $600 $845 +$245 (+41%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 46¢ 60¢ $500 $647 +$147 (+29%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $500 $448 −$52 (-10%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 47¢ 46¢ $400 $387 −$13 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,107 +$105 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $405 +$309 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,000 +$975 +98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 +$205 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $405 +$262 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,616 +$490 +30%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,115 +$850 +76%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $511 +$1,213 +238%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $507 −$500 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3,772 +$1,088 +29%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,212 −$1,200 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,213 −$1,205 -54%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10,081 −$9,934 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $2,500 −$470 -19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $503 −$13 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $500 +$261 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,888 −$2,850 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5,020 −$5,000 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2,127 −$2,100 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $504 −$500 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $606 −$600 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5,604 −$5,500 -98%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1,511 +$487 +32%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2,525 +$1,203 +48%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $2,018 +$834 +41%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1,211 −$1,200 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $508 −$500 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1,006 +$267 +27%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $48 +$52 +108%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,826 −$1,800 -99%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1,517 +$869 +57%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2,020 +$965 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $3,017 +$687 +23%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1,015 +$986 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$5 -5%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $506 −$500 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1,012 +$655 +65%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1,010 +$462 +46%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,700 +$1,248 +73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,051 +$1,370 +130%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $504 +$181 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $506 +$313 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $505 −$500 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $403 +$145 +36%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $387 −$381 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,210 +$480 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $913 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $708 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $605 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $508 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,009 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $102 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 48¢ $508 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $405 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 52¢ $492 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $507 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $606 11h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $304 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $405 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $608 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 47¢ $406 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $500 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $511 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4,860 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $3,772 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,212 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,202 34h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $3,400 35h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $6,681 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,062.64 · official $7,073.51 (match) · 439 history records