Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5106…40fb other 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%27W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$36
sports 23% −$25
politics 20% −$9
crypto 12% −$9
world 4% −$10
culture 3% −$2
finance 3% +$4
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 68 -1.1% -10.5% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 116 -0.7% -10.1% 17% 0% -9.9%
all 139 -0.6% -10.1% 19% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses27 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage106d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $57 −$4 -7%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $61 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $124 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $238 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $118 −$3 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $38 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $56 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $96 $0 +0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $22 $0 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $257 +$1 +0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $40 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $22 $0 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $174 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $469 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 04 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $118 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 04 $54 −$6 -11%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $57 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $244 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $120 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $344 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $265 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 1h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $9 1h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $10 6h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 6h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 13h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 14h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 19h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $61 19h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $61 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 33h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $61 34h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $61 40h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $51 40h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 44h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $49 45h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $46 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $46 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $45 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $46 2d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $58 2d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $60 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $37 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $51 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $43 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $44 3d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.06 · official $38.06 (match) · 568 history records