Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
51 0x5105…6c69 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+11%) realized +$30 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$27
sports 24% +$44
crypto 12% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +25.1% +13.2% 100% 100% +13.2%
≤30d 4 +5.0% -5.0% 75% 50% +6.6%
≤90d 4 +5.0% -5.0% 75% 50% +6.6%
all 4 +5.0% -5.0% 75% 50% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 50% +6.6%
10% -14.1% 50% -3.6%
15% -22.4% 25% -12.9%
20% -30.0% 25% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$30 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage18d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $58 $51 −$7 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 31 $26 +$2 +9%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $28 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.75 · official $50.75 (match) · 27 history records