Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x5104…8e01 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+0%) realized +$40 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%30W / 45L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$20
14 days+$12
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$1
other 35% +$4
sports 9% +$6
politics 8% +$25
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% +$10
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 29 -2.7% -12.0% 31% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 38 -2.5% -11.8% 37% 0% -9.3%
all 75 +2.7% -7.0% 40% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 4% -9.2%
10% -15.9% 3% -17.9%
15% -24.1% 3% -25.8%
20% -31.5% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses30 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage487d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $148 $149 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $253 −$1 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $14 +$1 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $275 +$4 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $289 +$15 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $130 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $128 +$2 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $403 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $129 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $143 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $144 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $281 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $14 −$7 -53%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $126 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $151 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $138 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $327 +$2 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $599 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $135 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $308 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $136 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $3 −$1 -32%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $305 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $152 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $290 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $206 −$7 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $319 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $329 +$1 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $225 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $2,148 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,052 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $468 +$23 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $998 +$3 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 07 $3 $0 -11%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Apr 22 $1 $0 -10%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 18 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $148 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $66 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $66 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $161 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $159 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $76 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $3 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $69 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $144 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $159 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $159 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $80 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $66 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $57 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $73 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $96 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $130 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $86 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $97 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $130 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.10 · official $149.10 (match) · 323 history records