Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5101…1f43 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$42 (-8%) realized −$41 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$27
economics 8% −$2
sports 4% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -8.0% -16.8% 58% 37% -14.9%
≤30d 19 -8.0% -16.8% 58% 37% -14.9%
≤90d 19 -8.0% -16.8% 58% 37% -14.9%
all 19 -8.0% -16.8% 58% 37% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 37% -14.9%
10% -24.7% 11% -23.1%
15% -32.0% 11% -30.5%
20% -38.7% 11% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage3d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? No 91¢ 92¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 86¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $95 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $171 −$33 -19%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$2 -21%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 $0 +21%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$4 +73%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $1 $0 +16%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 91¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 95¢ $90 3h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL No 44¢ $55 4h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 80¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 96¢ $50 6h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 96¢ $50 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY No 98¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 92¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 95¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 96¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $100 14h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 90¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL No 69¢ $8 21h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 86¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 82¢ $1 25h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 37h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 37h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? BUY No 94¢ $10 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $5 2d
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 2d
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? BUY Yes 66¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.71 · official $94.71 (match) · 48 history records