Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5100…66b5 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$1
world 32% −$3
politics 9% −$1
crypto 8% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 6 -1.6% -11.0% 17% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 6 -1.6% -11.0% 17% 0% -11.0%
all 26 -4.9% -13.9% 27% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -10.6%
10% -22.2% 0% -19.2%
15% -29.7% 0% -27.0%
20% -36.6% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage458d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 67¢ 68¢ $36 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $43 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $38 −$2 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $8 $0 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $85 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 29 $11 $0 +4%
Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian p May 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft get traded? Apr 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $12 $0 -1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $12 $0 -0%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 24 $3 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? Mar 23 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $36 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 24h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $36 30h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $38 32h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $5 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $5 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $42 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $42 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $43 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $0 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $3 22d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 336d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $11 359d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 400d
Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian p BUY No 96¢ $1 415d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.11 · official $35.77 · 80 history records