Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5100…5a78 other 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$20
sports 25% −$16
politics 13% −$6
economics 10% −$3
crypto 10% −$5
culture 5% −$2
tech 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 3 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 117 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage159d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $42 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 04 $817 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $104 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $108 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 04 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $523 −$2 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $117 $0 -0%
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Mar 04 $111 −$3 -2%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $299 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 04 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 04 $113 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $703 −$2 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $381 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 04 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $245 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $532 −$1 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $564 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $235 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $246 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $270 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $115 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $882 −$6 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $124 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $242 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 04 $1,289 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $389 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $126 −$1 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $259 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 04 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $299 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 03 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $120 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 03 $124 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 03 $143 $0 -0%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 03 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 03 $124 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 12d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 12d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 25d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 25d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $54 32d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $54 32d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $115 104d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $115 104d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $104 104d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $104 104d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 92¢ $107 104d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $108 104d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $114 104d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $114 104d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 97¢ $116 104d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $117 104d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $117 104d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $117 104d
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL No 96¢ $108 104d
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 98¢ $111 104d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 104d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $113 104d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 104d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $113 104d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 96¢ $120 104d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 96¢ $120 104d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? SELL No 96¢ $113 104d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $113 104d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $111 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.87 · official $38.87 (match) · 541 history records