Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:24:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50fe…226d world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$6
other 19% +$1
politics 16% −$1
sports 13% −$11
economics 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.4% -8.2% 38% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 28 -0.7% -10.2% 36% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 73 -1.2% -10.6% 37% 1% -9.7%
all 74 -2.5% -11.8% 36% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 1% -10.0%
10% -20.3% 1% -18.6%
15% -28.0% 1% -26.5%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 47
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage491d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 96¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $8 +$1 +8%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $91 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $105 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $32 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $38 +$2 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $30 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $86 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $165 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $123 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $29 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $151 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $67 −$7 -10%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $91 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $14 +$7 +50%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $23 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $14 −$3 -24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $65 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $5 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $32 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $91 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $59 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $67 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $34 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $34 33m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $34 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $31 23h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $31 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $31 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $11 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $20 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $20 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $11 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 69¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $9 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $11 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $3 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $8 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $32 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.10 · official $0.00 · 328 history records