Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50fb…b96d other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate5%5W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$22
politics 25% −$12
sports 7% +$11
crypto 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
culture 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 70 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 105 +2.2% -7.5% 5% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 4% -9.6%
10% -16.4% 2% -18.2%
15% -24.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -31.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×11.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses5 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage133d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $369 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $382 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $320 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $215 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $410 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $258 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $233 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $451 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $268 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $255 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $278 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $211 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $244 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $284 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $266 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 14 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $529 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $466 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 19 $304 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $319 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $310 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $293 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $276 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $312 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $334 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $342 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $309 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $305 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $279 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 12 $342 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $608 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $244 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $341 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $495 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 4h
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $41 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 5d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 21d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 24d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 25d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 27d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 27d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 28d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $215 28d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $215 30d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $217 30d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $217 30d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $193 31d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $193 31d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $258 32d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $258 33d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $233 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.09 · official $103.09 (match) · 352 history records