Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50f7…ee2b crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-7%) realized +$3 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%38W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$9
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$31
sports 6% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -8.1% -16.8% 51% 46% -12.7%
≤30d 78 -11.7% -20.1% 49% 44% -14.5%
≤90d 78 -11.7% -20.1% 49% 44% -14.5%
all 78 -11.7% -20.1% 49% 44% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 44% -14.5%
10% -27.8% 36% -22.7%
15% -34.8% 28% -30.2%
20% -41.2% 19% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses38 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)78 / 84
History coverage11d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$14 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$8 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 219 history records