Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50f4…04d4 sports 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$199 (+3%) realized +$293 · open −$94
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day46.8pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,021now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$36
other 37% +$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 5% -6.2%
≤30d 20 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 5% -6.2%
≤90d 20 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 5% -6.2%
all 20 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 5% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 5% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 5% -15.1%
15% -29.4% 5% -23.3%
20% -36.3% 5% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$17 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,021
Realized+$293
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions7
Markets (closed)20 / 27
History coverage3d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day46.8
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 93¢ 92¢ $361 $359 −$1 (-0%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $260 $252 −$8 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Team Nemesis 68¢ 50¢ $340 $252 −$88 (-26%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Mentality Monster 28¢ 28¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Mentality Monster 28¢ 28¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Mentality Monster 22¢ 24¢ $31 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Infinite 40¢ 39¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $315 +$1 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $280 −$4 -1%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $240 −$6 -2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $325 $0 -0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $260 +$25 +10%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $198 $0 +0%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $435 +$32 +7%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $115 +$7 +6%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 17 $185 +$2 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $220 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $275 −$4 -1%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 16 $48 +$1 +2%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $670 +$15 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $41 $0 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $483 +$5 +1%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $375 $0 -0%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $270 +$229 +85%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $260 5m
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? SELL No 64¢ $316 18m
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY No 63¢ $315 18m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout SELL Mentality Monster 23¢ $1 23m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 22¢ $32 23m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Infinite 40¢ $2 46m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 28¢ $67 58m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 28¢ $54 58m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $276 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $280 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 94¢ $104 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 68¢ $340 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $464 3h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL No 47¢ $196 17h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL No 47¢ $38 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Under 65¢ $325 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $325 17h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $174 17h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $12 17h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $6 17h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $47 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 57¢ $268 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 57¢ $1 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 57¢ $10 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 57¢ $6 19h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 37¢ $33 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 37¢ $21 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 37¢ $1 21h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 37¢ $4 21h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 37¢ $13 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,021.24 · official $1,021.24 (match) · 150 history records