Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50f4…b9eb crypto 1660 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$256 (-6%) realized −$255 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%693W / 964L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$11
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$281
weather 4% +$13
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -6.7% -15.6% 64% 36% +0.1%
≤30d 54 -2.0% -11.3% 56% 41% -2.1%
≤90d 1013 -49.0% -53.9% 27% 26% -49.1%
all 1657 -5.9% -14.9% 42% 41% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 41% -15.5%
10% -23.0% 40% -23.6%
15% -30.4% 38% -31.0%
20% -37.3% 37% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$255
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses693 / 964
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1657 / 1660
History coverage124d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1657 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? No 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$6 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$8 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 +$1 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 08 $13 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 6? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$2 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 3? Jun 04 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 03 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$3 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 57m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 56¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 17h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 91¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.04 · official $4.04 (match) · 3500 history records