Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:47:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
50 0x50f4…acb1 crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$797 (-35%) realized −$795 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$1,135
other 28% +$335
crypto 10% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 11 +9.5% -1.0% 82% 36% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 36% -42.4%
10% -10.4% 36% -47.9%
15% -19.1% 36% -52.9%
20% -27.0% 36% -57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$615 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$795
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage239d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 17 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $75 $0 +0%
Will Levante UD vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Jan 11 $130 −$130 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 03 $64 +$67 +104%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $64 $0 +0%
Spread: Hornets (-5.5) Dec 24 $35 +$29 +82%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lecce vs. Verona end in a draw? Nov 07 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Como win on 2025-10-29? Oct 30 $311 +$191 +61%
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? Oct 29 $261 +$147 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $67 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $75 30d
Will Solana reach $200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $75 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $75 153d
Will Levante UD vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $130 164d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $64 173d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $64 177d
Spread: Hornets (-5.5) BUY Hornets 55¢ $35 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $5 216d
Will Lecce vs. Verona end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $1,100 229d
Will Como win on 2025-10-29? BUY Yes 62¢ $311 238d
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? BUY Yes 64¢ $261 239d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.18 · official $64.19 (match) · 22 history records